Barclays on U.S. Airlines: November RASM Preview

Barclays on U.S. Airlines: November RASM Preview

Barclays analyst, Gary Chase, said, "Airlines should begin reporting November traffic and RASM results next week. While we and others were cautious about the revenue outlook for the last couple of months, data points continue to show no sign of weakness in demand. We revised our 4Q estimates this morning as revenue data points relative to our expectations
continue to surprise to the upside (see our note titled "robust Outlook Remains; Upgrade LCC on Weakness, Favorable Capacity Dynamics" published on December 1, 2011). We now believe that November will prove to have been a month of slight improvement after a solid showing in October. In our view, capacity discipline, especially in off peak periods like the early part of November, are enhancing results.

Expected November RASM results are as follows:
U.S. Airways (NYSE: LCC): + 10-12%

United (NYSE: UAL): + 10-12%

Southwest (NYSE: LUV): + 6-8% (including AirTran)

JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU): + 9-11%

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