Ticonderoga Securities Strategy and Economics / Afternoon Radar Screen

Ticonderoga Securities Afternoon Note from John Stoltzfus

A Confluence of Disappointment Derails a Stateside Mini Rally

No sooner had it looked like the market was out of the barber’s chair and “back to work” than it found itself taking yet another haircut.

Today’s disappointing initial jobless claims, along with a near negative “mirror image” number on the Philly Fed index coupled with results at Sears Holding Corp. (Nasdaq: SHLD) (Not-rated) that missed analysts’ estimates, dented, if not torpedoed, the market.

As we’ve noted earlier, we believe that the distance between intermittent rallies and interim pullbacks will narrow for at least the near term as challenges to the economic recovery continue to surface even as evidence of sustainable growth—albeit at slower than earlier levels—persistently surfaces on the economic landscape.

The market, not surprisingly, is hungry for a catalyst that will provide it good reason to move up or down with some level of commitment. Until such catalyst appears, traders, speculators and at least some investors will likely play the channels and trade the spreads to bide their time.

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