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Ticonderoga Securities Strategy and Economics / Morning Radar Screen

September 16, 2010 9:54 AM EDT
Ticonderoga Securities Strategy and Economics / Morning Radar Screen by John Stoltzfus

Living From Data Point to Data Point . . . Awaiting the Next Catalyst

Asia moved lower on increased worries about the possibility of further restrictions on bank loans in China as well as on concerns around the sustainability of the economic recovery stateside and Europe on weaker economic data points released earlier this week.

Financials and materials related companies led stocks lower in Asia. The yen strengthened as the FX market waited to see if Japan will take further steps to intervene against its currency's strength.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7%. Declines were limited in Japan’s Nikkei 225 index today, as stocks declined 0.1% after yesterday’s currency intervention rally.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.5%, breaking a five-day winning streak that lifted the benchmark 3.3% higher. China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.9%, with financial declines leading stocks lower on worries that authorities might require banks to increase capital against loans.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 3,000 to 450,000 in the week ended September 11, according to the Labor Department. The median forecast was for a rise of 459,000.

Better than expected initial jobless claims, albeit not by much, is indicative of improvement in the jobs space and should provide support for the markets today. With job declines at the lowest level in two months, it’s a sign the labor market is improving—even if slowly.

The PPI (Producer Price Index) released today shows costs in the U.S. rose last month for a second month, signaling that demand is likely strong enough to prevent deflation. Rising 0.4%, the PPI was up the most in five months, besting its gain in July by a factor of 2x.

Treasury TIC data released this morning showed that global appetite for U.S. securities was stronger than forecast in July. Net purchases of stocks, notes, and bonds totaled $61.2 billion in July versus $44.4 billion in June.

Stateside data so far today is providing offset to negatives out of Asia and Europe (particularly the U.K. retail sales) earlier.

On the corporate side of the equation, FedEx’s disappointing glance ahead released today is likely to moderate enthusiasm among stock buyers.

When all’s said and done, it remains a workout market in the midst of an economic recovery from the worst financial crisis in modern history. Stay tuned.


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Initial Jobless Claims